With Saturday night's welterweight clash between Antonio Margarito and "Sugar" Shane Mosley less than days away, let's take a look at what the betting odds are for all the possible outcomes of this fantastic bout. Also included is a favorable wager on the off-television bout between Robert Guerrero and Edel Ruiz.Odds:
Antonio Margarito: -400
"Sugar" Shane Mosley: +275
Draw: +2000
Over 10.5 rounds: -140
Under 10.5 rounds: even
Additional odds:
Margarito via decision: +110
Margarito via KO/TKO/DQ: +140
Mosley via decision: +500
Mosley via KO/TKO/DQ: +1000
Official pick(s): In my opinion, there is no value in taking either fighter straight up. If you are leaning towards Mosley, you might as well take him by decision at +500 and get nearly twice as much value as just picking Shane to win. I don't see Shane winning this fight, although I see it being competitive through the first six rounds or so.
There is an interesting dynamic to this fight if you take a look at past performances. In Mosley's past two fights, he has turned it on in the second half of fights. Against Miguel Cotto, he fell behind early but rallied in the mid-to-late rounds to make it a close loss on the scorecards. In his fight against Ricardo Mayorga, it took Mosley many rounds to adjust to Mayorga's awkward style before he finally figured it out and gutted out a last-second knockout to win the fight. In that fight he also started to take over in the middle of the fight and was ahead on two scorecards heading into the final round. There are very few fighters in the world that can make adjustments mid-fight the way that Mosley has done throughout his career. In his two fights against Oscar De la Hoya, he likely won all four of the championship rounds. Also note that Mosley has a class-A level chin, so the likelihood of a clean knockout from Margarito is very unlikely. Couple that with Mosley's heart, and the only way he is getting stopped is if the referee or Mosley's corner steps in to hault the bout.
On the other side of things, you have another stupendous second-half fighter in Antonio Margarito. When Margarito doesn't score an early knockout, he usually grinds his opponents down with a high volume of punches once they start to show signs of slowing down. Although Margarito does not have the one-punch knockout power that you would imagine someone with his reputation would have, it's hard to think of anyone that Mosley has faced in the past that is a better all-around puncher.
Margarito may also be one of the best finishers in the sport, as he is good at recognizing when his opponent is hurt so he can then swarm them with a high volume of power shots. This will be the second bout in a row where Margarito is fighting a man who gives him a run for his money in the body punching department. In his fight against Cotto, his opponent did not go to the body enough to try and slow Margarito down. It's hard to give Cotto much grief for that considering he was landing at will upstairs through the duration of the bout, but when your attack is having no effect on the opposition you should probably try something new. If Mosley attacks Margarito's body early on, it will be interesting to see the effect that could have on him in the late rounds, where he usually goes to another level.
At this point in Shane's career, I just cannot see him getting past the late surge that Margarito will undoubtedly stage in the latter part of the fight. I will be risking 5 units on Margarito by KO/TKO/DQ, with my official prediction being Margarito TKO11 Mosley on a corner or referee stoppage. I don't think it is likely that we see Mosley taste the canvas, but I do expect him to take a very bad beating in a fight that he is very much in at the point of the stoppage.
Also will be risking 3 units on the over (5.5 rounds) in the untelevised undercard bout between Robert Guerrero and Edel Ruiz to win 6.9 units. My basis for this pick: Guerrero has been off for nearly a year and he will also be moving into the super featherweight class for the first time. Guerrero was never known as a big puncher before, compiling 15 of his 22 wins by knockout. He has only stopped two of his last eight opponent inside of five rounds, and although Ruiz has been stopped early before (KO3 by Jhonny Gonzalez, KO1 by Mario Santiago, KO3 by Eduardo Escobedo), I expect Guerrero to try and get some rounds before thinking about finishing his opponent.
Bets for this weekend:
5x to win 7x on Margarito by KO/TKO/DQ
3x to win 6.9x on O5.5 in Guerrero-Ruiz
Photo by Chris Farina/Top Rank.
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